At 1.00 pm on 19 September 2023 Azerbaijani forces began attacking the territory with artillery and drones in what it called an “anti-terror” operation. Within 24 hours the Armenians capitulated, leaving Azerbaijan in effective control of the territory, and an enforced mass exodus of the whole Armenian population from the enclave took place over the following days. The Karabakh population had previously been pushed to the brink of starvation as a result of the economic blockade imposed by Azerbaijan in December 2022, when it had sealed off the three-mile Lachin Corridor, the enclave’s only supply route to Armenia.
For both the Armenian elite and the broader population, events in Nagorno-Karabakh—which they see as nothing short of ethnic cleansing—have destroyed the idea of Russia as a security guarantor. This idea had been common currency since at least the beginning of the 19th century, to the extent of becoming a part of Armenian national identity. However, in the light of Moscow’s silent acquiescence during last September’s one-day war (and in the prior blockade imposed by Azerbaijan), most Armenians no longer see Russia as an ally, never mind a security guarantor.
In his talk Dr Zolyan will give us his informed assessment of the direction which Armenia’s foreign policy post-Karabakh is now likely to take. This is likely to involve a lesser reliance by Armenia on Russia as its key ally and more of a tilt towards the West and Global South, as well as the making of overtures toward other major powers, particularly India and Iran. At the same time, Yerevan will be looking to retain constructive relations with Moscow. And despite the trauma of losing Nagorno-Karabakh, there will be continuing efforts to resolve the long-standing conflict with Azerbaijan and normalise relations with Turkey.
Dr Mikael Zolyan is a political analyst and historian based in Yerevan, the capital of Armenia. From January 2019 until June 2021 Dr Zolyan was a member of the Armenian National Assembly, belonging to the “My Step” faction. In 2019-2020 Dr Zolyan served as a member of the Standing Committee on Foreign Relations, and from January-June 2021 he was a member of the Standing Committee on European Integration. He was also a member of the Euronest Eastern Partnership Parliamentary Forum. In his analytical and academic work Dr Zolyan specialises in issues of national identity, ethnic conflict, nationalism and ethnicity, as well as democratisation and democracy in the post- Soviet context. He holds a Ph.D. in History from Yerevan State University and a Master’s degree in Nationalism Studies from the Central European University in Budapest. Dr Zolyan teaches at Yerevan State Linguistic University, where he holds the UNESCO Chair of Democracy. He has published numerous articles in Armenia and abroad, including in Armenian, as well as in English, Russian and German. His analytical articles are frequently published in Armenian and international media which cover events in Armenia and the region.